Comments on: South Caucasus 2020

By: mat

mat — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 23:49:40 +0000

you said that to the russians abkazia is more inportent then south oseta, however your wrong because ossetia and its roky tunnle provide axcess to the heart of the caucasus which in russias minde is more importent, if the chechens got inderpendent and invitered say nato or the us in russia world be in deep shit and they world continue to fragment untill they retuned to the teritory they had in the middle ages, so if chechnea and the other north caucasus continue to fight for inderpendens backed by the us and eu of cause, russia will have no option but to attack georgia in the south caucasus to isolate the chechens ,South OSSETIA is the highway to all the caucasus.

By: Konstantin Eggert

Konstantin Eggert — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 05:50:34 +0000

Dear Tom,

This is a very interesting, concise piece. I have several thoughts/suggestions that came to mind.

While describing possible Azerbaijani attack, it’d be interesting to give at least a brief overview of the military potential of both sides. I have read that Baku has been spending lots and lots of money on its armed forces. The tone there is much more belligerent than now. Wonder whether any projections could be made regarding this?

Russia’s influence in the region is declining indeed and whatever remains, stems from economic interests/power projection. However does preclude Russia from trying to convert economic clout into more political/military advantages?

It isn’t clear from the piece why Georgian/ South Ossetian rapprochement is possible? If anything it is the Abkhaz who feel more independent to start any if they please. South Ossetians take their cue entirely from Moscow.

A couple of things I did not understand about Azerbaijan, probably because I am not a specialist on the region – why cannot the government go on plugging political/social holes with cash, as it does now? And how a crisis in Iran can impact domestic situation in Azerbaijan? You mean a domestic political crisis or US/Israeli strike? Is there still a very strong feeling of kinship with Iranian Azerbaijanis? Are their currently indications of growth of Islamic radicalism in the country?

Kostya

By: Алексей Сидоренко

Алексей Сидоренко — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 09:02:44 +0000

Dear Armenak,

thank you for your comment!

By: Armenak

Armenak — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 11:18:10 +0000

This is not an optimistic scenario, but romantic one. It appears that the author underestimates the system contradictions, which exist between Turkey and US, in the context of Turkey's neo-osmanian politics in the region on the one hand and impossibility of "…Russian acceptance of the end of its dominant role in the region…", on the other.