Россия 2020 – Сценарии развития страны. Проект Московского Центра Карнеги


About Us

As the crisis begins to recede and Russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for Russia’s future along key vectors, including: Russia’s role in the world and in the Post-Soviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil society, the state, regions and federalism, Northern Caucasus, and the military. Draft materials have been posted for discussion on a special Russia-2020 website launched by the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Policy challenges and ideas for addressing them are mapped out to 2020 – far enough in the future to avoid being held hostage to current circumstances, but not so far out as to lose connection with reality and sway towards utopian or dystopian visions. Each material focuses on two basic scenarios: the most likely, which would be inertial; and a more positive scenario, including policy proposals for achieving desired outcomes.

To provide multi-dimensional analysis, each topic is addressed by two researchers, a Russian writing from an insider’s perspective, and an author writing from the outside. The group we have assembled is a virtual dream team of experts in their field, including: on the Western side, Arkady Moshes, Anatol Lieven, Richard Sakwa, Darrell Slider, Daniel Treisman, Cliff Gaddy, Henry Hale, Sam Greene, Jens Siegert, Thomas Graham, Robert Orttung, Pavel Bayev, and Georgy Derlugian; and on the Russian side: Dmitri Trenin, Andrey Ryabov, Igor Zevelev, Vladimir Gelman, Vladimir Milov, Boris Makarenko, Maria Lipman, Alexey Sidorenko, Alexander Kynev, Natalia Zubarevich, Lev Gudkov, Boris Dubin, Kirill Rogov, Nikolay Petrov, Alexey Malashenko, and Alexander Golts. The materials are targeted for experts on Russia, policymakers in Moscow and other capitals, as well as students, researchers and other interested parties around the world.

We believe that the time is ripe for such a project, due to the impact of the crises – international and domestic – and the attendant changes Russia will eventually have to make to its strategies and policies. Moreover, we believe this project to be unique: never before has a team of Russian and foreign analysts so systematically approached Russia’s future.

A more detailed, face-to-face discussion on these topics will take place in October 2010, including the authors and selected outside experts. The most active and effective participant of the Internet-discussion will be also invited to take part in the debate. The live discussion will be transmitted online on the Internet, to attract more experts in the virtual space.

If this project is in any way of interest to you, we would be eager to hear your views.